5/16/08: Another good night. We have recruited every available warm body in the county, so even I had time to use Activate. I was on the final two hours, and had a ratio of 5/3 in our favor.
As you all have probably heard, ARG confirmed SUSA's earlier poll that we are tied in ballots that have already been returned. My prediction last night that the polls would rapidly move in our direction happened a couple of days early. I can't be right about everything ;)
But still, for ARG to be right that we will end down by 5, we will hit a wall at our phone banks. Here's my bold prediction: there is no wall. The result will be close. We will exceed expectations in Oregon,and it will be a blow to Obama. We will win if we have volunteers on the phone. Period.
I have one more day on the ground here. My work is done. Crazy, huh? The election is still 4 days away, and I've already made my impact by recruiting enough vols to keep the phones busy. I'll do vis at the Farmers' market for the third time tomorrow (with one last chance to recruit vols), and I'm out of here. I'd love to stay because there is an increasing chance that my buddies will have the best victory party ever, but I have obligations at home. And like I said, with this paradoxical mail-in election, I've already done what I can. I could have left last weekend, without much difference.
I feel good. I'm satisfied that we have done great work, and I couldn't be happier than to be tied among all actual votes four days out. If we take the late surge, we not only take Oregon, we should take the White House.
I love this campaign.